Technical, Environmental, and Economic Analysis Comparing Low-Carbon Industrial Process Heat Options in U.S. Poly(vinyl chloride) and Ethylene Manufacturing Facilities.

Electrification and clean hydrogen are promising low-carbon options for decarbonizing industrial process heat, which is an essential target for reducing sector-wide emissions. However, industrial processes with heat demand vary significantly across industries in terms of temperature requirements, capacities, and equipment, making it challenging to determine applications for low-carbon technologies that are technically and economically feasible. In this analysis, we develop a framework for evaluating life cycle emissions, water use, and cost impacts of electric and clean hydrogen process heat technologies and apply it in several case studies for plastics and petrochemical manufacturing industries in the United States. Our results show that industrial heat pumps could reduce emissions by 12-17% in a typical poly(vinyl chloride) (PVC) facility in certain locations currently, compared to conventional natural gas combustion, and that other electric technologies in PVC and ethylene production could reduce emissions by nearly 90% with a sufficiently decarbonized electric grid. Life cycle water use increases significantly in all low-carbon technology cases. The levelized cost of heat of viable low-carbon technologies ranges from 15 to 100% higher than conventional heating systems, primarily due to energy costs. We discuss results in the context of relevant policies that could be useful to manufacturing facilities and policymakers for aiding the transition to low-carbon process heat technologies.

Planet-compatible pathways for transitioning the chemical industry.

Chemical products, such as plastics, solvents, and fertilizers, are essential for supporting modern lifestyles. Yet, producing, using, and disposing of chemicals creates adverse environmental impacts which threaten the industry's license to operate. This study presents seven planet-compatible pathways toward 2050 employing demand-side and supply-side interventions with cumulative total investment costs of US$1.2-3.7 trillion. Resource efficiency and circularity interventions reduce global chemicals demand by 23 to 33% and are critical for mitigating risks associated with using fossil feedstocks and carbon capture and sequestration, and constraints on available biogenic and recyclate feedstocks. Replacing fossil feedstocks with biogenic/air-capture sources, shifting carbon destinations from the atmosphere to ground, and electrifying/decarbonizing energy supply for production technologies could enable net negative emissions of 0.5 GtCO2eq y-1 across non-ammonia chemicals, while still delivering essential chemical-based services to society.

Lifecycle cost and carbon implications of residential solar-plus-storage in California.

Capacities of residential photovoltaics (PV) and battery storage are rapidly growing, while their lifecycle cost and carbon implications are not well understood. Here, we integrate PV generation and load data for households in California to assess the current and future lifecycle cost and carbon emissions of solar-plus-storage systems. Our results show that installing PV reduces $180-$730 and 110-570 kgCO2 per year per household in 2020. However, compared to solar-only system, adding battery storage increases lifecycle costs by 39%-67%, while impact on emissions is mixed (-20% to 24%) depending on tariff structure and marginal emission factors. In 2040, under current decarbonization and cost trajectories, solar-plus-storage leads to up to 31% higher lifecycle costs and up to 32% higher emissions than solar-only systems. Designing a tariff structure with wider rate spreads aligned with marginal carbon emissions, and reducing the costs and embodied emissions of batteries are crucial for broader adoption of low-carbon residential solar-plus-storage.

Understanding Variability To Reduce the Energy and GHG Footprints of U.S. Ethylene Production.

Recent growth in U.S. ethylene production due to the shale gas boom is affecting the U.S. chemical industry's energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions footprints. To evaluate these effects, a systematic, first-principles model of the cradle-to-gate ethylene production system was developed and applied. The variances associated with estimating the energy consumption and GHG emission intensities of U.S. ethylene production, both from conventional natural gas and from shale gas, are explicitly analyzed. A sensitivity analysis illustrates that the large variances in energy intensity are due to process parameters (e.g., compressor efficiency), and that large variances in GHG emissions intensity are due to fugitive emissions from upstream natural gas production. On the basis of these results, the opportunities with the greatest leverage for reducing the energy and GHG footprints are presented. The model and analysis provide energy analysts and policy makers with a better understanding of the drivers of energy use and GHG emissions associated with U.S. ethylene production. They also constitute a rich data resource that can be used to evaluate options for managing the industry's footprints moving forward.

Energy Impacts of Wide Band Gap Semiconductors in U.S. Light-Duty Electric Vehicle Fleet.

Silicon carbide and gallium nitride, two leading wide band gap semiconductors with significant potential in electric vehicle power electronics, are examined from a life cycle energy perspective and compared with incumbent silicon in U.S. light-duty electric vehicle fleet. Cradle-to-gate, silicon carbide is estimated to require more than twice the energy as silicon. However, the magnitude of vehicle use phase fuel savings potential is comparatively several orders of magnitude higher than the marginal increase in cradle-to-gate energy. Gallium nitride cradle-to-gate energy requirements are estimated to be similar to silicon, with use phase savings potential similar to or exceeding that of silicon carbide. Potential energy reductions in the United States vehicle fleet are examined through several scenarios that consider the market adoption potential of electric vehicles themselves, as well as the market adoption potential of wide band gap semiconductors in electric vehicles. For the 2015-2050 time frame, cumulative energy savings associated with the deployment of wide band gap semiconductors are estimated to range from 2-20 billion GJ depending on market adoption dynamics.

Improved product energy intensity benchmarking metrics for thermally concentrated food products.

Product energy intensity (PEI) metrics allow industry and policymakers to quantify manufacturing energy requirements on a product-output basis. However, complexities can arise for benchmarking of thermally concentrated products, particularly in the food processing industry, due to differences in outlet composition, feed material composition, and processing technology. This study analyzes tomato paste as a typical, high-volume concentrated product using a thermodynamics-based model. Results show that PEI for tomato pastes and purees varies from 1200 to 9700 kJ/kg over the range of 8%-40% outlet solids concentration for a 3-effect evaporator, and 980-7000 kJ/kg for a 5-effect evaporator. Further, the PEI for producing paste at 31% outlet solids concentration in a 3-effect evaporator varies from 13,000 kJ/kg at 3% feed solids concentration to 5900 kJ/kg at 6%; for a 5-effect evaporator, the variation is from 9200 kJ/kg at 3%, to 4300 kJ/kg at 6%. Methods to compare the PEI of different product concentrations on a standard basis are evaluated. This paper also presents methods to develop PEI benchmark values for multiple plants. These results focus on the case of a tomato paste processing facility, but can be extended to other products and industries that utilize thermal concentration.

Industrial steam systems and the energy-water nexus.

This paper presents estimates for water consumption and steam generation within U.S. manufacturing industries. These estimates were developed through the integration of detailed, industry-level fuel use and operation data with an engineering-based steam system model. The results indicate that industrial steam systems consume approximately 3780 TBTU/yr (3.98 × 10(9) GJ/yr) to generate an estimated 2.9 trillion lb/yr (1.3 trillion kg/yr) of steam. Since a good portion of this steam is injected directly into plant processes, vented, leaked, or removed via blowdown, roughly 354 MGD of freshwater must be introduced to these systems as makeup. This freshwater consumption rate is approximately 11% of that for the entire U.S. manufacturing sector, or the total residential consumption rate of Los Angeles, the second largest city in the U.S. The majority of this consumption (>94%) can be attributed to the food, paper, petroleum refining, and chemicals industries. The results of the analyses presented herein provide previously unavailable detail on water consumption in U.S. industrial steam systems and highlight opportunities for combined energy and water savings.

Long-term energy and climate implications of carbon capture and storage deployment strategies in the US coal-fired electricity fleet.

To understand the long-term energy and climate implications of different implementation strategies for carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the US coal-fired electricity fleet, we integrate three analytical elements: scenario projection of energy supply systems, temporally explicit life cycle modeling, and time-dependent calculation of radiative forcing. Assuming continued large-scale use of coal for electricity generation, we find that aggressive implementation of CCS could reduce cumulative greenhouse gas emissions (CO(2), CH(4), and N(2)O) from the US coal-fired power fleet through 2100 by 37-58%. Cumulative radiative forcing through 2100 would be reduced by only 24-46%, due to the front-loaded time profile of the emissions and the long atmospheric residence time of CO(2). The efficiency of energy conversion and carbon capture technologies strongly affects the amount of primary energy used but has little effect on greenhouse gas emissions or radiative forcing. Delaying implementation of CCS deployment significantly increases long-term radiative forcing. This study highlights the time-dynamic nature of potential climate benefits and energy costs of different CCS deployment pathways and identifies opportunities and constraints of successful CCS implementation.